dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Alexander Mattison targets

Alexander Mattison: targetsFITTED MODEL

RB · FA · NFL · baseline 3.4/game (2024, 14 games)
3.3
Median
0.5-6.2
80% range
1.8-4.8
50% range
7.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.53.36.2
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
1.0+86%
2.0+72%
3.0+54%
4.0+41%
5.0+22%
6.0+12%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 646 RB targets games, our 80% range covered 76.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Alexander Mattison player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts