dfsforge / NFL forecasts / George Pickens receiving yards

George Pickens: receiving yardsFITTED MODEL

WR · DAL · NFL · baseline 84/game (2025, 17 games)
79
Median
33-140
80% range
52-112
50% range
160
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3379140
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receiving yardsProbability
25+95%
50+76%
75+54%
100+33%
125+16%
150+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1868 WR receiving yards games, our 80% range covered 81.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: George Pickens player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts