dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Michael Carter carries

Michael Carter: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · TEN · NFL · baseline 7.1/game (2025, 13 games)
6.2
Median
1.7-13.7
80% range
3.3-9.4
50% range
17.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.76.213.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
2.0+87%
4.0+69%
6.0+52%
8.0+34%
10.0+22%
12.0+15%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Michael Carter player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts