dfsforge / NFL forecasts / James Conner receptions

James Conner: receptionsFITTED MODEL

RB · ARI · NFL · baseline 2.9/game (2024, 16 games)
2.5
Median
1.0-5.4
80% range
1.7-3.9
50% range
6.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.02.55.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+90%
2.0+71%
3.0+43%
4.0+24%
5.0+13%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 637 RB receptions games, our 80% range covered 77.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: James Conner player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts