dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Davante Adams targets

Davante Adams: targetsFITTED MODEL

WR · LAR · NFL · baseline 8.1/game (2025, 14 games)
8.0
Median
3.9-12.9
80% range
5.7-10.1
50% range
14.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.98.012.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
4.0+90%
6.0+72%
8.0+50%
10.0+26%
12.0+14%
14.0+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Davante Adams player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts