dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Brashard Smith targets

Brashard Smith: targetsFITTED MODEL

Name: Brashard Smith targets outcome distribution
Creator: dfsforge

RB · KC · NFL · baseline 2.1/game (2025, 17 games)

1.7

Median

0.0-4.9

80% range

0.7-3.2

50% range

5.3

Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targets	Probability
1.0+	59%
2.0+	46%
3.0+	28%
4.0+	16%

Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 646 RB targets games, our 80% range covered 76.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).

Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.

More: Brashard Smith player page · all NFL forecasts

Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts