dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Tee Higgins receptions

Tee Higgins: receptionsFITTED MODEL

WR · CIN · NFL · baseline 3.9/game (2025, 15 games)
3.7
Median
0.9-7.2
80% range
2.1-5.4
50% range
8.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.93.77.2
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+90%
2.0+78%
3.0+61%
4.0+46%
5.0+31%
6.0+19%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1555 WR receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Tee Higgins player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts