dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jalen Tolbert targets

Jalen Tolbert: targetsFITTED MODEL

WR · MIA · NFL · baseline 2.8/game (2025, 12 games)
2.4
Median
0.7-5.4
80% range
1.3-4.0
50% range
6.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.72.45.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
1.0+83%
2.0+58%
3.0+39%
4.0+25%
5.0+14%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jalen Tolbert player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts