dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jimmy Garoppolo passing yards

Jimmy Garoppolo: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · FA · NFL · baseline 172/game (2023, 7 games)
184
Median
29-290
80% range
99-242
50% range
325
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

29184290
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
50+85%
100+75%
150+64%
200+42%
250+22%
300+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2023 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jimmy Garoppolo player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts