dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Brian Robinson carries

Brian Robinson: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · ATL · NFL · baseline 5.4/game (2025, 17 games)
4.3
Median
1.0-11.3
80% range
2.3-7.7
50% range
13.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.04.311.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
2.0+78%
4.0+53%
6.0+35%
8.0+24%
10.0+14%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Brian Robinson player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts