dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Tua Tagovailoa passing yards

Tua Tagovailoa: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · ATL · NFL · baseline 190/game (2025, 14 games)
198
Median
75-297
80% range
142-246
50% range
318
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

75198297
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
50+93%
100+86%
150+71%
200+48%
250+23%
300+9%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Tua Tagovailoa player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts