dfsforge / NFL forecasts / D'Andre Swift rushing yards

D'Andre Swift: rushing yardsFITTED MODEL

RB · CHI · NFL · baseline 68/game (2025, 16 games)
64
Median
22-118
80% range
38-96
50% range
134
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2264118
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

rushing yardsProbability
20+91%
40+73%
60+54%
80+36%
100+22%
120+9%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 977 RB rushing yards games, our 80% range covered 77.6% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: D'Andre Swift player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts