dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Drake Maye pass attempts

Drake Maye: pass attemptsFITTED MODEL

QB · NE · NFL · baseline 29/game (2025, 17 games)
30
Median
16-40
80% range
25-35
50% range
42
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

163040
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pass attemptsProbability
20+85%
25+73%
30+50%
35+26%
40+10%
45+2%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 566 QB pass attempts games, our 80% range covered 79.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Drake Maye player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts