dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Zach Charbonnet carries

Zach Charbonnet: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · SEA · NFL · baseline 11.5/game (2025, 16 games)
11.0
Median
4.1-19.5
80% range
7.3-15.2
50% range
21.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

4.111.019.5
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
6.0+82%
8.0+71%
10.0+57%
12.0+43%
14.0+32%
16.0+21%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Zach Charbonnet player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts