dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Marcus Mariota passing yards

Marcus Mariota: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · WAS · NFL · baseline 170/game (2025, 10 games)
181
Median
26-287
80% range
96-240
50% range
322
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

26181287
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
50+84%
100+74%
150+63%
200+41%
250+21%
300+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Marcus Mariota player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts