dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Tank Dell receiving yards

Tank Dell: receiving yardsFITTED MODEL

WR · HOU · NFL · baseline 48/game (2024, 14 games)
42
Median
5-98
80% range
20-69
50% range
115
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

54298
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receiving yardsProbability
20+75%
40+52%
60+32%
80+18%
100+9%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1868 WR receiving yards games, our 80% range covered 81.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Tank Dell player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts