dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Elijah Higgins targets

Elijah Higgins: targetsFITTED MODEL

TE · ARI · NFL · baseline 2.2/game (2025, 17 games)
1.8
Median
0.7-4.6
80% range
1.0-2.9
50% range
5.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.71.84.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
1.0+76%
2.0+44%
3.0+24%
4.0+13%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 732 TE targets games, our 80% range covered 84.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Elijah Higgins player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts