dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Emanuel Wilson carries

Emanuel Wilson: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · SEA · NFL · baseline 7.4/game (2025, 17 games)
6.5
Median
1.9-14.0
80% range
3.6-9.7
50% range
17.5
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.96.514.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
2.0+90%
4.0+71%
6.0+55%
8.0+36%
10.0+23%
12.0+16%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Emanuel Wilson player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts