dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Caleb Williams pass attempts

Caleb Williams: pass attemptsFITTED MODEL

QB · CHI · NFL · baseline 33/game (2025, 17 games)
33
Median
23-43
80% range
29-38
50% range
47
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

233343
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pass attemptsProbability
20+96%
25+87%
30+67%
35+37%
40+17%
45+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 566 QB pass attempts games, our 80% range covered 79.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Caleb Williams player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts